PENSACOLA-GULF BREEZE-NAVARRE-As reported by the Pensacola Association of Realtors through MLS data: In the summer of 2004 the Pensacola area was poised for record breaking home sales with an average home sale price at $154,603, then came Hurricane Ivan and a series of weather events that dramatically changed the market for a short while, but by 2005, the market bounced back with the average home price rising to $207,360. Sales broke records at 8% more than 2004--the market had a healthy three month supply of homes available. As interest rates continued to rise, and with uncertainty of the upcoming hurricane season and housing bubble, in May of 2006, sales dropped by nearly 20% and prices had fallen to an average sale price of only $201,021. The average inventory more than doubled from 2188 houses on the market to 5003 homes, or an astonishing 8.3 month supply of homes currently on the market. The Pensacola market is clearly changing into a buyer's market. The condo market is experiencing an even more dramatic change. In May of 2004, there were 234 condos on the market averaging $358,000, and there was a healthy three month supply. Brokers closed 75 units. In May of 2005, the average price also increased with the housing market, but the number of units sold plummeted to only 57 and the number of condos offered for sale nearly doubled to 536 but the average sale price increased to $397,985. By May of 2005, there was a 9.4 month supply of condos for sale. Despite this, in May of 2006, brokers had 1357 condos listed on the market, almost three times the number of condos for sale in the year prior, making the condominium market in Pensacola one of the most saturated in Florida, having a 34 month supply for sale. The average saleprice for a condo was $455,857 in May of 2006 Clearly, the market has changed and if you are in the market to buy a house or condominium in the Pensacola area, it is a buyer's market.

June 6, 2006

DESTIN/FT. WALTON-The Emerald Coast may have escaped a lethal blow from Ivan in 2004 but in the last 24 months the area has succumbed to a roller coaster real estate market and right now, the direction unfortunately for thousands of sellers, is downhill. In May of 2004, the MLS reported 318 sales of condominiums averaging $494,411 and on the market 59 days. At the time, there was a healthy 4 month supply of homes. Then came a near miss from Ivan and by May of 2005, the area reported signs of a dampening market, with slightly fewer condos sold but a solid $589,000 increase in the average sale price ($100,000) in one year--the supply of condos for sale reached more than 7 months under everybody's exhuberant noses. Now comes May 2006, higher interest rates and hurricane anxiety plus a statewide insurance uncertainty that contributed to only 85 condos being sold. Far less than the prior two years, and on average for only 92% of the asking price. In May of 2006, the average sale price for a condo here in the Destin/Ft. Walton area tanked at $442,179, and like a rising tide upon a sandcastle, the market has taken away all the gains since 2004 and perhaps for a time to come as there is more than a FOUR-YEAR supply of condos on the market today. The single family housing market fared similarly. In May of 2004, 599 single family homes sold for an average price of $304,000, with sellers getting 97% of the asking price in about two months. There was only a 2.5 month supply of homes in the area. After Ivan, the market continued to steam along with 573 houses sold, for $414,043 average sale price, a gain of more than $100,000. Rising interest rates and hurricanitis has since driven back many buyers. In May 2006, there were only 444 homes sold, far less than the two prior years. The average sale price dropped too. On average a seller got only 95% of the asking price in 2006, for an average sale price just above the 2004 level at $311,192. Available housing inventory swelled from 1548 units for sale in May of 2004 (pre-Ivan) to 2404 for sale in 2005. In May of 2006, the inventory of houses for sale has hit a record 5946! Today there is more than a 13 month supply of homes for sale in the area. Buyers know what they want and for the properties that are priced to sell, market times on a good deal averages 76 days.

June 6, 2006

PANAMA CITY BEACH-BAY COUNTY The Bay County Association of Realtors allowes for combining the housing and condo market data together for an overall housing picture which showed striking similarities to the other panhandle markets. Inventories in 2004 prior to Ivan, were flying off the market in the Bay County area. The MLS reported 514 units closed in May of 2004, for an average selling price of $249,724 and the future looked promising. There were 1373 units for sale at the time and sellers were getting 97.49% of their asking price on average in about 54 days. Only one year later, in May 2005, the number of units sold precipitously dropped to 383, a 25% free-fall. The properties that were priced to sell did well though, the average price rose over the course of the year prior and even post-Ivan to $305,269. Sellers could expect to sell their homes for about 96% of the asking price in about 65 days. The number of active listings at the same time though nearly tripled to a jaw-dropping 3311 units for sale in May of 2005. This meant there would be a 8.6 month supply of housing asking on average of $315,000. Fast-Forward to May 2006, where the new year has failed to gain traction and the hurricane season is looming and promises to be an active one. In Bay County area, the number of sales dropped again to only 356 sales, down about 10% from 2005 and the average sale price also dropped to $286,433! The most incredible data points here in the Bay County area, following suit with the realty rich Emerald Coast, the length of time it took on average for the homes that were properly priced to sell was 205 days, (almost 2/3 of the preceeding year!), and with serious price adjustments in both the asking price ($298,243) and getting price ($286,433). The number of units for sale, in 2004 at 1373, nearly tripled to 3311 in 2005, is now is nearly twice that, or 5629 houses and condos currently for sale in May 2006. This translates to a 15 month supply of housing in the Bay County area. Properties must be priced to sell and prices in this area dropped about 6% of what sellers once thought their property was worth. This trend is evident in markets across this area and increasingly in other Florida cities and not just the ones taunted and ravaged by Hurricanes.

June 6, 2006

PlanetRealtor.com, a real estate trade website reported Florida Home Sales were down 31% while condos sales were off by nearly 37% compared to last year. Rising interest rates, high energy prices, hurricanitis and an anxious seller's market is turning into a buyers market in cities across Florida, especially the coastal areas. The average median home sale price in Florida rose again to $249,700, while condos averaged selling price was $222,900. Consumer confidence continues to wax and wain, now at 86 which is lower than a brisk 90 or better. The average fixed rate mortgage was teetering at 6.7%. Bottom line is in my opinion is that all sellers need to be competitive and remember that the market not only can, but has and probably will continue to change dramatically through 2008 and the Presidential Election.

June 6, 2006

TALLAHASSEE-The Capital Region fared the best so far this year. In May of 2004, there were 1133 units for sale and sales were up a mere 2% with 408 units closed. Then in May of 2005, the number of available listings swelled to 1348, giving way to a modest 31% increase in sales, or or 552 closed units. In May of 2006, the inventory more than doubled from 2004 levels and increased almost 100% from the 2005 to 2460 units for sale. The MLS reported 593 units sold, for 33% increase over April 2006. Local brokers have been diligent in their pricing homes to sell and the ones that are priced competitively are the ones that are selling. Many sellers are convinced their home is the best value in the area and are pricing their homes based on data that is six months old and does not reflect the regional and national changes which are affecting market times and sale prices. Sellers have been slashing asking prices by 6-10% for the last three months as they have become accustomed to fast sales for 97% of the asking price for nearly a decade and buyers aren't just biting. More and More prices are being negotiated and with many offering incentives such as seller paid closing costs or other improvements. The Tallahassee market is top-heavy with $400K+ homes as every builder seems to have one or two in their inventory. Where were they when interest rates were only 4%? The Tallahassee market remains strong though primarily based on the location, inland and away from storm surge and brunt of a hurricane, and based on the population consisting of mainly state workers, educators, and service industries. The future for Tallahassee real estate appears stable. New construction leads the way in sales. Development is happening all over the city and outlying bedroom communities like Havana, Jefferson and Wakulla County.

June 7, 2006

And the Tallahassee market along with the Northwest Florida Coastal markets are settling into realistic pricing and reduced price listing signs are everywhere. Exhuberance is starting to digest reality with rising interest rates and lots of refinancing questions these days. There are a gazillion A.R.M.'s in the market tied to the myriad indexes, which the Fed has made clear will continue to be bumped on their end to hedge inflation. I expect the refinance market will start to pick up and other sellers might just decide to go ahead and sell now while the market is attractive for both buyer and seller. The June report will be out after the July 4th weekend when the data will best reflect the onset of summer in 2006. Every indication is that the real estate market continues be strong and there are brisk sales in very sector except the coastal regions, where reduced, expired and withdrawn listings appear to outnumber the sales. Have a safe and happy 4th of July!

June 29, 2006

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